Snowflake supera il massimo a 52 settimane a 372,95$ mentre CoCo raggiunge il 60% dei clienti

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Product revenue accelerated seven points in two quarters while operating margin expanded to 15.3% from 11% | That's TradingNEWS

Key Points

SNOW trades at $372.95, up $67.11 or 21.94%, on 8.846 million shares versus a 5.471 million average.

Product revenue hit $1.49 billion, up 37%, with Q3 guidance at approximately 38% growth.

FY27 product revenue guidance rose to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion, lifting growth to 36%.

Snowflake trades at $372.95, higher by $67.11 or 21.94%, on 8.846 million shares against a 5.471 million three-month average. Market capitalization has reached $129.263 billion. The stock has cleared the top of its 52-week range at $341.95 and is trading in territory it has never held, up 37.83% over the trailing twelve months and 84% across the past six.

The setup into the print made this move harder than it looks. Shares closed Wednesday's regular session at $306.19, down 4.26% from a $319.80 prior close, sliding into the report alongside a broad software selloff that took Palantir down 6.45%, Palo Alto Networks down 5.24% and MongoDB down 4.23% on rate-hike fear. The stock had already rallied 84% over six months and carried a five-quarter beat streak, which is the configuration where in-line results get punished. Options priced a 12.1% to 12.4% move in either direction.

The stock delivered roughly double that. It printed $374.25 in extended trading Wednesday for a $68.41 gain on the regular close, and it has held the level through Thursday's session, trading as high as $372.99 and settling into the low $370s.

What separates this from a typical beat-and-raise is what the company did to the growth curve. Product revenue accelerated for a third consecutive quarter, reaching 37% year-over-year growth against 30% at the close of fiscal 2026 — a seven-percentage-point acceleration in two quarters for a business generating over $6 billion in annualized revenue. Companies that size do not normally speed up.

The thesis for this forecast is that Snowflake has converted an AI narrative into measurable consumption, and the market is repricing the multiple accordingly. The stock at $129.263 billion trades at 21.3 times the newly raised fiscal 2027 product revenue guidance of $6.07 billion. That is a demanding number against a company still posting GAAP losses, but it is not the 30-plus multiple this business carried in prior expansion phases.

The levels that matter from here: $341.95, the old 52-week high, is now the first structural support. $306.19, Wednesday's close, is the bottom of the gap and the invalidation line. On the upside, the target distribution reset violently this morning and now spans $377 to $475.

The fiscal second quarter, ended July 31, beat on every line the Street tracks.

Total revenue came in at $1.547 billion, up 35.09% year over year against a consensus of $1.483 billion and one desk's model at $1.487 billion. Product revenue — the number that drives the entire valuation because it strips out the smaller professional services business — reached $1.49 billion, up 37%. Non-GAAP earnings landed at $0.62 per share against $0.447 expected, a 38.7% surprise. On the GAAP line, the net loss narrowed to $192.7 million from $297.9 million a year earlier.

Compare that to the year-ago quarter to see the shape of the change. In fiscal second quarter 2026, Snowflake posted revenue of $1.14 billion on 32% growth with adjusted earnings of $0.35 against $0.27 expected, and product revenue of $1.09 billion up 32%. Twelve months later, the revenue base is 36% larger and the growth rate is five points higher. That combination — a bigger base growing faster — is the hardest thing in enterprise software to produce.

The full-year context reinforces it. Fiscal 2026, ended January 31, delivered $4.472 billion in product revenue and $4.68 billion in total revenue, a 29.16% increase over the prior year's $3.63 billion. The current quarter's 37% product growth against that 29% full-year rate is the acceleration made concrete.

Third-quarter guidance calls for approximately 38% year-over-year product revenue growth, which would extend the acceleration to a fourth consecutive quarter. That guide is the single most consequential number in the release, because a business guiding to sequential acceleration is a business telling the market its consumption curve has re-steepened rather than stabilized.

CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy framed the quarter as Snowflake's second consecutive period of record sequential dollar growth, and attributed roughly half of the growth acceleration directly to AI products. That attribution is what analysts spent the call testing, because the durability of the entire re-rating depends on whether AI-driven consumption is incremental workload or a one-time migration event.

The five-quarter beat streak now extends to six. Coming in, one prediction market assigned a 96% probability that Snowflake would beat, which meant an in-line print alone could have triggered a selloff against a 46% year-to-date rally.

Strip away the headline beat and the investable fact is the second derivative.

Product revenue growth has gone 30% at the end of fiscal 2026, then higher for three straight quarters, reaching 37% in the July quarter with guidance for approximately 38% in the current one. Seven percentage points of acceleration on a business scaling toward $6 billion means the incremental dollar of new consumption is arriving faster than the base is compounding.

That matters because consumption-model software companies almost never re-accelerate. Once the migration wave from on-premise data warehouses matures, growth decays toward the rate at which existing customers expand usage. Snowflake spent 2024 and much of 2025 in exactly that decay, which is why the stock traded a choppy range and delivered a slightly negative five-year compound annual return despite strong absolute revenue growth. The market had priced a decelerating core business against an AI narrative that kept getting pushed further out.

What broke the pattern is that the AI workloads finally showed up in the consumption meter rather than in the pipeline commentary. Management said AI products contributed about half of the acceleration, and described the mechanism as new workloads landing on the platform, driving adoption of first-party AI tools, and then lifting consumption of the core data platform underneath. That is a flywheel argument, and flywheel arguments only become investable when the numbers move — which they now have, three quarters running.

The counter-argument deserves equal weight. Some of the acceleration reflects enterprises running one-time AI experiments — training runs, retrieval indexes, agent prototypes — that consume heavily for a quarter or two and then normalize. A survey of enterprise buyers ahead of the print found respondents planning to use large language models to optimize and potentially reduce Snowflake spend, which is the same technology cutting the other way.

The test is the fourth quarter. If product growth prints near the guided 38% and management guides fiscal 2028 above 30%, the acceleration is structural. If growth flattens at 37% and the fiscal 2028 guide comes in at 28% to 30%, this quarter was the peak and the multiple compresses back toward where it started.

Beats move stocks; raises re-rate them. Snowflake did both, and the size of the raise is what pushed targets past $450.

Full-year fiscal 2027 product revenue guidance moved to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion, taking implied growth to 36% from 31%. That is a $230 million increase to the annual number in a single quarter, and it lifts the growth guide by five percentage points rather than the customary one or two.

Context on how unusual that is: back in June, the company had raised fiscal 2027 product revenue growth guidance to 31%, and that move alone was read as signalling an AI inflection. Three months later the guide is 36%. A company that raises its full-year growth rate by five points midway through the year is a company where the underlying trend materially exceeded its own planning assumptions.

The comparison to the prior cycle sharpens it further. In fiscal 2026, Snowflake guided full-year product revenue to $4.395 billion representing 27% growth, and finished at $4.472 billion. The current $6.07 billion guide on 36% growth is $1.6 billion of incremental annual product revenue against that prior year — more absolute dollars added in one year than the company generated in total during fiscal 2022.

Profitability guidance moved alongside it. Non-GAAP operating margin guidance for fiscal 2027 went to 14.5% from 13.5%, after the second quarter printed 15.3% against 11% a year earlier. The company maintained its 23% adjusted free cash flow margin outlook and reiterated a target of reaching GAAP profitability in fiscal fourth quarter 2028.

Raising growth and margin simultaneously is the combination that justifies multiple expansion. Most companies buy acceleration with spending, which shows up as margin compression and gets discounted as low-quality growth. Snowflake accelerated five points and expanded operating margin 430 basis points year over year in the same quarter.

Consensus now models the company turning profitable this year at $2.07 per share, which at $372.95 puts the stock at 180 times forward earnings. That number is the reason the valuation section of this analysis carries as much weight as the growth section.

The one genuinely negative disclosure in the quarter is the gross margin guide, and it is the same problem that took 6.31% out of Broadcom on the same day.

Product gross margin was guided down to 74%. AI workloads carry materially higher compute cost per dollar of revenue than traditional data warehousing queries, and as those workloads grow as a share of consumption they dilute the platform's blended margin. Management said as much: AI is compounding the company's advantage on the top line, and it is doing so at a lower incremental margin.

The market gave Snowflake a pass and did not give Broadcom one. The difference is direction of travel on the operating line. Broadcom guided fourth-quarter consolidated gross margin to 73% from 78% a year earlier — a five-point compression — while its revenue growth was already at 86% and decelerating on the guide. Snowflake trimmed product gross margin to 74% while raising the full-year operating margin guide to 14.5% from 13.5%, meaning operating leverage below the gross line is more than offsetting the mix hit.

That distinction is the whole reason one stock ripped 21.94% and the other got smoked. Investors will absorb gross margin dilution when the operating margin still expands. They will not when it does not.

The durability question sits in whether operating leverage can keep outrunning gross margin dilution. Snowflake's operating expense base carries heavy stock-based compensation, which is why the company posted a $1.33 billion GAAP net loss in fiscal 2026 while generating positive adjusted free cash flow at a 23% margin. As AI consumption scales, the gross margin drag compounds while the sales and marketing leverage story has a natural ceiling.

The path to the stated fiscal 2028 GAAP profitability target runs through that arithmetic. At 74% product gross margin and a 14.5% non-GAAP operating margin, the gap between adjusted and GAAP profitability is almost entirely equity compensation. Closing it requires either a slower grant pace or revenue growth large enough to dilute the expense as a percentage of sales.

Second-quarter GAAP loss narrowing to $192.7 million from $297.9 million shows the gap closing at roughly $105 million a year. At that rate the fiscal 2028 target is achievable but not comfortable.

Every element of this re-rating traces back to one product, and the adoption curve on it is the fastest in the company's history.

Cortex Code — marketed as CoCo — reached general availability in mid-February 2026. It embeds a context-aware AI coding agent directly into the development workflow, letting customers build, deploy and iterate on data pipelines, analytics and AI agents faster while staying inside Snowflake's governance boundary. By the first fiscal quarter of 2027 it had over 7,100 accounts, roughly 50% penetration of the customer base and the fastest adoption of any product Snowflake has shipped.

By this quarter, CoCo is used in more than 60% of the customer base.

The reason that number drives the stock rather than sitting as a nice-to-have metric is the consumption mechanism. CoCo is not primarily a revenue line — it is a force multiplier on the core platform. Developers using an embedded agent write more pipelines, run more queries, and generate more compute consumption on the underlying warehouse. Snowflake charges for compute. More agent activity means more compute, which means more product revenue without a corresponding sales motion.

That is why one research desk described Cortex Code as simultaneously a new revenue stream and a force multiplier on the core business, and identified it as the largest single driver of a prior full-year guidance raise. The current quarter's commentary matched: the consumption flywheel is durable, and enterprises are at the beginning of leveraging internal context to empower agents.

CoWork, the companion product, contributed to the same acceleration. Management attributed roughly half the growth acceleration to the two together.

The strategic framing management uses — providing a governed data foundation for enterprise AI — is the defensible version of the pitch. Enterprises will not point production agents at ungoverned data. If Snowflake owns the governance layer, it owns the substrate every agent has to query, and every agent query is billable compute.

The risk is that this advantage is a timing advantage rather than a structural one. Competitors are shipping equivalent agent tooling against their own governed catalogs, and the open Apache Iceberg table format has become the industry's neutral standard, which lets customers keep data in open storage and point any compute engine at it. Governance is defensible. Storage lock-in is not.

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The customer metrics are where the acceleration gets validated or exposed, and both of the important ones improved.

Net revenue retention came in at 126%, up from 125% in the prior period. For a consumption business, NRR is the single cleanest read on whether existing customers are expanding usage, because it strips out new logo acquisition entirely. A 126% reading means the average customer cohort spent 26% more this year than last, before any new customers are counted.

That number has to be read against the growth rate. Product revenue growing 37% with NRR at 126% means roughly two-thirds of growth comes from existing customer expansion and the balance from new accounts. That is a healthier mix than the reverse, because expansion revenue carries far lower acquisition cost and much higher gross retention.

Remaining performance obligations rose 30% to $9 billion. RPO is contracted revenue not yet recognized — the visible backlog. Nine billion dollars against a $6.07 billion full-year product revenue guide gives roughly 1.5 years of contracted coverage, which is unusually strong for a consumption model where customers typically commit to capacity rather than to specific usage.

The nuance worth watching: RPO growing 30% while product revenue grows 37% means revenue is currently converting faster than backlog is building. That is a positive signal about near-term consumption intensity and a mild caution about the medium term, because at some point the backlog has to grow at least as fast as revenue to sustain the rate.

Adoption breadth adds a third data point. Beyond CoCo's 60%-plus penetration, the platform continues landing large strategic deployments — a global retail media data hub across Europe and Latin America running on Snowflake Data Clean Rooms, and a security partnership bringing a major endpoint platform's telemetry onto Snowflake at the end of August.

Those wins matter for a specific reason. Data clean rooms and security telemetry are both high-volume, continuously-ingesting workloads. They are the kind of consumption that recurs rather than the kind that spikes during an experiment and stops.

Here is where the stock gets uncomfortable, and any honest forecast has to sit with it.

At $372.95 and a $129.263 billion market capitalization, Snowflake trades at 21.3 times the raised fiscal 2027 product revenue guidance of $6.07 billion. Against estimated total fiscal 2027 revenue of roughly $6.30 billion, the multiple is 20.5 times. Against trailing fiscal 2026 total revenue of $4.68 billion, it is 27.6 times. Against the consensus fiscal 2027 earnings estimate of $2.07 per share, the stock trades at 180 times.

Adjust for growth and it looks more defensible. Twenty-one times forward product revenue on 36% guided growth produces a multiple-to-growth ratio of 0.59. Software businesses growing above 30% with expanding operating margins have historically supported ratios between 0.5 and 0.8, which places Snowflake at the low end of that band rather than the top.

The multiple has also been reset upward by the sell side rather than expanded by the market alone. One valuation framework raised its applied multiple to 15 times from 11 times to reflect the higher growth expectations, producing a $377 target — essentially where the stock trades. Earlier in the year, the same stock traded at approximately 14.5 times forward enterprise value to sales, with commentary warning that any consumption slowdown could compress the multiple toward 10 to 12 times.

That compression risk is the number to hold onto. At 10 to 12 times fiscal 2027 revenue, Snowflake is a $63 billion to $76 billion company — $182 to $219 per share. The gap between a 36% grower at 21 times and a 25% grower at 12 times is roughly half the current price. This is not a stock where the downside is a 20% drawdown.

Skeptical positions on valuation have been in place all year. One long-running hold recommendation cited a forward earnings premium approaching 440% above sector norms and described the setup as frothy, even while acknowledging accelerating growth, strong customer metrics and improving operating margins.

The honest read: at 21 times forward product revenue this is not a value stock and it is not obviously overpriced either. It is priced for the acceleration to persist through fiscal 2028. Everything hinges on that.

Two disclosures sit against the bull case and neither was addressed by this quarter's results.

Snowflake posted a GAAP net loss of $1.33 billion in fiscal 2026, 3.58% larger than the prior year's loss. That is a company generating $4.68 billion of revenue and losing $1.33 billion on a reported basis, with the gap between adjusted and GAAP results driven overwhelmingly by stock-based compensation. Equity compensation at that scale is a real cost to shareholders — it dilutes ownership continuously — and the fact that the loss widened in absolute terms while revenue grew 29% means the grant pace has been keeping pace with the business.

The second-quarter loss narrowing to $192.7 million from $297.9 million shows the trajectory improving. Annualized, the current loss run-rate is roughly $770 million, down materially from $1.33 billion. Management's fiscal fourth quarter 2028 GAAP profitability target implies closing that gap over the next six quarters, which requires continued revenue leverage rather than a change in compensation policy.

Insider activity gives the second pause. Over the three months preceding the print, company insiders sold 1.16 million shares totalling approximately $321.7 million. An executive vice president disposed of 25,000 shares in August at $325 per share. Insider selling at a company with heavy equity compensation is routine and much of it runs on pre-scheduled plans, but $321.7 million in a single quarter against a then-$110 billion market capitalization is a large number, and the August sales landed within 15% of the pre-earnings price.

Set against that, institutional flows have been overwhelmingly one-directional. Across the trailing twelve months, 883 institutional buyers deployed nearly $41 billion into the stock while institutional sellers accounted for under $6 billion of outflows. That is close to a seven-to-one ratio and it explains why the shares absorbed both the insider supply and a near-record short position without breaking down.

The practical implication for the forecast: dilution and GAAP losses are known, priced, and improving. They are not the reason this stock would fall. The reason would be a growth deceleration, and neither of these disclosures speaks to that.

The mechanics of a 21.94% single-session move in a $129 billion company require forced buying, and Snowflake had the fuel sitting in plain sight.

Short interest stood at $6.18 billion, making Snowflake one of the most heavily shorted stocks in the U.S. market, with positioning described as near record levels. Against a pre-print market capitalization near $110 billion, that is roughly 5.6% of the company sold short — an enormous absolute dollar figure for a large-cap name.

The short thesis was coherent: a pre-profit company with a $1.33 billion GAAP loss, a forward earnings premium hundreds of percent above sector norms, heavy stock-based compensation, active insider selling, and intensifying competition from a private rival with more revenue and a comparable valuation. Every one of those points survived this quarter intact.

What did not survive was the growth assumption underneath it. A short position predicated on decelerating consumption cannot hold through a third consecutive quarter of acceleration and a five-point full-year guidance raise, and the covering had to happen against a stock gapping $68 above the prior close with no intraday liquidity to absorb it.